Read is Right in Live Play Foray... Decision is Wrong

I raised in middle late position with a suited ace. He called on the button. I hadn’t played many hands and he had played a good amount. He had twice the chips of me. The flop came king high with two of my suit. I put out a small blocking bet that he seemed willing to call because of the price.

I couldn’t put him on the king here. I’d expect him to defend his hand a little bit. Second pair was an 8 but I couldn’t really give him an 8. If he had two 8s in the hole (a set) doesn’t he repop a little bit here for fear of the flush draw and/or wanting to extract a little value in the hand. In his situation I will at times give the guy a card with such a hand and reevaluate if the flush hits, but hope it doesn’t and extract another bet out of him, so I couldn’t rule out him doing the same thing to me.

The turn didn’t give me a flush but paired my weaker kicker. I decided to bet out a little bit bigger here, and he flatted again. Which is a little offputting. I didn’t think my image at that table was of a two barrel bluffer. So I have to give him something. I don’t think he’s got a weaker flush draw but he might. I can’t give him top pair either.

The river is brick city, not either of my two bad kickers, any of my three aces, or any of my suit (12 outs?). I decide to check and hope that he ends the hand with a check behind me. Then he throws out a strange bet. He overbets bigger than the pot.

Now, I can’t beat top pair, I can’t beat second pair, and I can’t beat many pocket pairs, but the bet is not a value bet. Clearly he doesn’t want a call. Unfortunately, it’s enough of my stack that I don’t think I can shove over the top and have him capitulate.

Then it is clear as day to me. The man has pocket 10s. He had a strong enough hand to call a small bet post flop, I tied him to the pot a little bit that his call on the turn is half-float, half-bluff buster. Probably a fold if I third barreled, but maybe not. Now, his river bet is trying to get a king with a crappy kicker to fold, or perhaps JJ. Or the old, I don’t know where I’m at, let me bet a lot and hope I win (typical of these donkaments). I don’t give him Jacks or queens because I think he pushes back probably preflop and maybe post flop. Nines make sense too but for some reason I see 10s in my head.

I tell/ask “You got 10s”. That got a reaction. In fact, it was enough of a reaction it was possible he was faking it. Ha-ha. Damn. I stew. Okay, he would fake to indicate a stronger hand than he had. So that mean’s he’s weaker than 1010? All that he would do that with was maybe A8 (which I don’t think he calls the turn with) to try and get 9s out of the hand. Or he’s got that flush draw (which is hard to give him because I hold the same draw).

The bet was so big and other than 10s I had to include a variety of flush possibilities as his hands. The reaction threw me and I reluctantly called. He sheepishly turned over his 10s thinking he was bested. Ouch. I mucked.

Terrible, terrible call by me. It was for way too much of my stack. I should have trusted my read and given myself more credit when I called his hand. I could have gotten away from the hand and had plenty of chips to play with (my normal tournament strategy unless I have a strong read). Then the guy, really turned the screw and said he would have folded to a shove (even though I had so little left that the pot would be offering him 5 or 6 to 1).

I guess he ‘s thinking he can’t call there if he thinks I’m shoving knowing his hand. Oh well, I thought that was an interesting hand. Ironic too, because my biggest criticism of Daniel Negreanu is he calls out his opponent’s hand and still calls with a loser. Me too, apparently.

Obviously, after that hand I searched out the roulette table, as I often do. I play online roulette frequently but there is a difference from when I play roulette online and when I play live. Online roulette is a nice little action rush and then I move on to everything else I'm doing that day. Live sometimes can be too much of a get-even charge. Good thing I got even. No chance, I'll think the ball landed on red and it really landed on black. Sometimes I really like roulette.