A while ago, Anurag Dikshit, former founder and executive at PartyGaming made a deal with the US government so he could set foot in the country again. I believe he paid a few hundred million. He paid a price that was a bit too steep. As PartyGaming just settled, settled exactly what is a good question, for considerably less than that. What was the purpose as PartyGaming is off in another hemisphere making bank with the rest of the world as runners.
Apparently, they are paying the government for that small window that the UIEGA was passed and they were still operating in the U.S. They aren't paying to come back. At least right now. The thinking seems to be, they are playing for a longterm foothold and paying the U.S. essentially to do it. As opposed to the sites that are busy soliciting U.S. business, PartyGaming is cozying up with the U.S. and when the doors are opened they are going to blast through. Perhaps, you could call it currying favor.
What benefits they'd get over Doyle's Room, Pokerstars, or FullTilt is anybody's guess. If the doors are opened and things are overturned, or never turned over in the first place, why would the government stop or hinder the other businesses and what possible preferential treament could PartyGaming get.
Speaking of FullTilt, despite the rumor that the Cyclona Gowen vs Full Tilt Poker Lawsuit was dismissed it's still going full... tilt. Gowen who sued Full Tilt and just about anybody who's ever wore a Full Tilt lid is trying to move the case to the next stage. They want to further the discovery process and get some depositions. Full Tilt meanwhile has been a little more even keeled about things. They have a motion to dismiss the case and are looking forward to the hearing on April 27th to discuss just that.
Course U.S. online poker isn't the only online poker and party poker isn't the only non-U.S. game in town. There are plenty of sites with a whole lot to offer.
Friday, April 10, 2009
Monday, April 6, 2009
Hedge to Win
I checked out one of my favorite poker and sports blogs today, here, and the hedge concept was discussed. This one applied less to hedging in poker and more about sports betting hedging. The author has been gambling on the NCAAAs by filling out a ton of brackets. Apparently he picked the Tar Heels to win and did well enough in his other brackets to have a chance to win some cash.
The only problem is, the way the rankings work. If UNC loses, he wins nothing. Yet, if he hedges he can guarantee a win regardless of whether or not UNC wins. Let's break down the math.
Hypothetically the author to win $1,100 if UNC wins the game. We'll call that outcome A. If they lose he wins nothing. We call that outcome B. Let’s assume he’s risked say $100 to have this opportunity. So technically, if they lose he actually loses his $100 and his profit if they win is only $1000.
Thus: A = $1000. B = -$100.
Can he hedge to make this better for him?
Yes, if he bets michigan state for anything over $100 he guarantees he'll win. Let's say he bets Michigan State to win outright and wagers $101. Now outcome A is lessened but outcome B is increased.
Thus: A = $899. B= $1.
You can see why it might make sense to guarantee himself at least a free roll, although reducing his profit margin if UNC does win.
On top of that North Carolina is big favorite in the game--which actually makes his hedge potentially even more lucrative. Why hedge if you team is a big favorite? The point spread is 7.5 which is a big line for college basketball and that creates a large win zone for the player.
Now there are three outcomes if he bets Michigan State, because he can still win if they don't win outright.
Let's say he bets $250 because he wants to win a little more money. In outcome A, UNC wins and covers the 7.5 points. Thus, he wins $750 (and cost himself $250 by hedging). However, if Michigan State wins outright the player now wins $250 for a profit of $150 for outcome B. However, if UNC wins but MSU covers and loses by a margin of 1 to 7 points there is an even more profit margin with the player winning $1000 for UNC winning and $250 for UNC covering.
Thus: A = $750, B = $150, and C = $1250.
Now there is even more reason for the player to hedge.
The hedge is a good play. Incidentally, as the blogger points out online gamblers should consider betting on the Heels for no other reason than the fact they too are gamblers. Read Sports Illustrated’s article here.
To understand how this applies to poker read bet and win's take. Hedging scenarios are difficult to spot in poker, but for the reasons they are profitable in sports gambling above they can be really proftiable in poker too. Look for them, and exploit them.
The only problem is, the way the rankings work. If UNC loses, he wins nothing. Yet, if he hedges he can guarantee a win regardless of whether or not UNC wins. Let's break down the math.
Hypothetically the author to win $1,100 if UNC wins the game. We'll call that outcome A. If they lose he wins nothing. We call that outcome B. Let’s assume he’s risked say $100 to have this opportunity. So technically, if they lose he actually loses his $100 and his profit if they win is only $1000.
Thus: A = $1000. B = -$100.
Can he hedge to make this better for him?
Yes, if he bets michigan state for anything over $100 he guarantees he'll win. Let's say he bets Michigan State to win outright and wagers $101. Now outcome A is lessened but outcome B is increased.
Thus: A = $899. B= $1.
You can see why it might make sense to guarantee himself at least a free roll, although reducing his profit margin if UNC does win.
On top of that North Carolina is big favorite in the game--which actually makes his hedge potentially even more lucrative. Why hedge if you team is a big favorite? The point spread is 7.5 which is a big line for college basketball and that creates a large win zone for the player.
Now there are three outcomes if he bets Michigan State, because he can still win if they don't win outright.
Let's say he bets $250 because he wants to win a little more money. In outcome A, UNC wins and covers the 7.5 points. Thus, he wins $750 (and cost himself $250 by hedging). However, if Michigan State wins outright the player now wins $250 for a profit of $150 for outcome B. However, if UNC wins but MSU covers and loses by a margin of 1 to 7 points there is an even more profit margin with the player winning $1000 for UNC winning and $250 for UNC covering.
Thus: A = $750, B = $150, and C = $1250.
Now there is even more reason for the player to hedge.
The hedge is a good play. Incidentally, as the blogger points out online gamblers should consider betting on the Heels for no other reason than the fact they too are gamblers. Read Sports Illustrated’s article here.
To understand how this applies to poker read bet and win's take. Hedging scenarios are difficult to spot in poker, but for the reasons they are profitable in sports gambling above they can be really proftiable in poker too. Look for them, and exploit them.
Friday, April 3, 2009
Strike Fear in the Heart of Your Opponent!
My friend the PokerBat suscribes to one theory about poker. It's simple. The BETTOR BUSINESS BUREAU of Poker as he calls it. The BBB. Or... more simply: Bet, Bet, Bet.
Agression is king in poker. And the best business in poker is being the aggressor.
The only thing scarier than being bet into time and again is being called down time and again when you are bluffing. Don't worry, you'll learn to see the determined glean in the eye of your opponent who has had enough and know when to check the next time.
You want to strike fear into the heart of your opponent let your chips be your weapon. You want to be the most feared guy on the table, three bet your (preferably) tight opponent three times in a row. He ain't entering the pot unless he's got a hand, and you got control.
All agression in poker should be calculated and carefully rendered but like in a prize fight it should be delivered time after time. Your bets should be a jab, jab, jab until you've set him up for the knock out punch.
It's easy to simply call or to throw out one raise but not a second. However, you have to be willing to die to be able to live as Amir Vaheidi once said. It's the truth. Over time the most successful poker players are some of the most aggressive. Even the tight players are aggressive. They got a hand they bet, bet, bet.
It's good business, the BBB.
Stu Unger was a Vegas legend because of his unmitigated agression. Tom Dwan is seeking to become one because of it. Put either of those two guys on a hand at your own peril.
Being unpredictable and thought of as a player who is just gambling is a great way to play this game. You'll get called by weak hands. Strong hands will push back too much and you can get away from a losing holding.
Don't forget though to be unrelenting. Wear down you opponent and think of your bets as punches winding him ever so slightly but long run you will break him.
Agression is king in poker. And the best business in poker is being the aggressor.
The only thing scarier than being bet into time and again is being called down time and again when you are bluffing. Don't worry, you'll learn to see the determined glean in the eye of your opponent who has had enough and know when to check the next time.
You want to strike fear into the heart of your opponent let your chips be your weapon. You want to be the most feared guy on the table, three bet your (preferably) tight opponent three times in a row. He ain't entering the pot unless he's got a hand, and you got control.
All agression in poker should be calculated and carefully rendered but like in a prize fight it should be delivered time after time. Your bets should be a jab, jab, jab until you've set him up for the knock out punch.
It's easy to simply call or to throw out one raise but not a second. However, you have to be willing to die to be able to live as Amir Vaheidi once said. It's the truth. Over time the most successful poker players are some of the most aggressive. Even the tight players are aggressive. They got a hand they bet, bet, bet.
It's good business, the BBB.
Stu Unger was a Vegas legend because of his unmitigated agression. Tom Dwan is seeking to become one because of it. Put either of those two guys on a hand at your own peril.
Being unpredictable and thought of as a player who is just gambling is a great way to play this game. You'll get called by weak hands. Strong hands will push back too much and you can get away from a losing holding.
Don't forget though to be unrelenting. Wear down you opponent and think of your bets as punches winding him ever so slightly but long run you will break him.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Drunk Maniacs online...
How do you avoid/exploit them?
In online play, they are simply maniacs. You can't see them to know if they are a drunk. So a maniac is a maniac.
Now you may suspect them to be a drunkard if they are mangling the chat box feature or exhibit extreme inconsistency. Problem is they could be tilting. Or they speak a different language. Or a cat could be walking across their wireless keyboard. No sure way to know they are drunk, inebriated or on something but it can be helpful to figure it out.
At first, your strategy should be to simply play them like any other uber-aggressive maniac. Pick your spots, wait for big hands, punish them and hope they don't draw out on you. This is very similar to a question posed on British Poker's site about online poker but I think there is more to it.
I think there are a couple of key strategies to employ if you think your virtual opponent is popping a few back and getting sauced while playing.
1. Find out if he is. How? You can ask "Is anybody else enjoying happy hour, right now?" or "Who else here is loaded?" Make it a positive question, because if posed negatively he might not cop up to it.
2. Then, if you get a yes, though they may be leveling you, say you are too, but if you are... don't follow the next piece of advice.
3. Encourage more drinking. Make it a prop-fame... "Any time a king hit the flop take a pop! Anytime a queen hits I'll take one (don't)."
4. Turn the needle a little bit. Once he can't differentiate between playful and antagonizing jawing, you've got him teed up.
5. Hit your hand, and felt the angry drunk.
Or... if needling isn't your thing.
1. Act quickly. Get the time function on him as often as possible. This will force him to think quickly. Even the best drunks lose processing efficiency so an online game with short clocks that force action are good places to exploit your advantage. Make it force him quicker.
2. Chat at him, be friendly, when it's about to be his turn. Another thing drunks aren't good at is multi-tasking. You do it as a friend, he won't turn off his chat box. Engage him in conversation and he'll think he's got a flush draw when he doesn't and he'll make more mistakes.
3. Soothe him after his bad plays. You want him around to leak more money. Drunks sometimes will lay off the guy they like when they have nuts, which is good for you too.
AND REMEMBER, you want him to make bad plays, don't get fired up when he draws out on you. That's what you want. If you can't afford to lose that pot, you are in the wrong game.
In online play, they are simply maniacs. You can't see them to know if they are a drunk. So a maniac is a maniac.
Now you may suspect them to be a drunkard if they are mangling the chat box feature or exhibit extreme inconsistency. Problem is they could be tilting. Or they speak a different language. Or a cat could be walking across their wireless keyboard. No sure way to know they are drunk, inebriated or on something but it can be helpful to figure it out.
At first, your strategy should be to simply play them like any other uber-aggressive maniac. Pick your spots, wait for big hands, punish them and hope they don't draw out on you. This is very similar to a question posed on British Poker's site about online poker but I think there is more to it.
I think there are a couple of key strategies to employ if you think your virtual opponent is popping a few back and getting sauced while playing.
1. Find out if he is. How? You can ask "Is anybody else enjoying happy hour, right now?" or "Who else here is loaded?" Make it a positive question, because if posed negatively he might not cop up to it.
2. Then, if you get a yes, though they may be leveling you, say you are too, but if you are... don't follow the next piece of advice.
3. Encourage more drinking. Make it a prop-fame... "Any time a king hit the flop take a pop! Anytime a queen hits I'll take one (don't)."
4. Turn the needle a little bit. Once he can't differentiate between playful and antagonizing jawing, you've got him teed up.
5. Hit your hand, and felt the angry drunk.
Or... if needling isn't your thing.
1. Act quickly. Get the time function on him as often as possible. This will force him to think quickly. Even the best drunks lose processing efficiency so an online game with short clocks that force action are good places to exploit your advantage. Make it force him quicker.
2. Chat at him, be friendly, when it's about to be his turn. Another thing drunks aren't good at is multi-tasking. You do it as a friend, he won't turn off his chat box. Engage him in conversation and he'll think he's got a flush draw when he doesn't and he'll make more mistakes.
3. Soothe him after his bad plays. You want him around to leak more money. Drunks sometimes will lay off the guy they like when they have nuts, which is good for you too.
AND REMEMBER, you want him to make bad plays, don't get fired up when he draws out on you. That's what you want. If you can't afford to lose that pot, you are in the wrong game.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Latest Winners of Trip to WPT Venice
Earlier this month Bwin held their Sunday WPT Venice qualifier one of their many daily poker tournaments. 61 players sought to join previous qualifiers skburke, KristapsK3, Speezebre, barolmay, Ilawa, Kicker Keni, jojojoxx, claystig1, and_Perbaad_Are at the WPT Venice event. The top three would join bwin's roster.
As the field got whittled down to the bubble these five players remained: indrich (~77k), RipCheaer (~70k), 010peter (just short of 100k), King_Dirk (one of two short stacks with about 31k) and Nikos7714 (the shortest stack at almost 28k). With three prize packages to be award with a value of $7,700 the action was tense.
You might recognize a couple of names on here from my posts about the Aussie Millions. By playing in bwin's poker tournaments, they each won a trip around the world. Once there, King_Dirk, went deep and cashed in a side event, and indrich gave a strong showing but didn't make the money. Once again, they were close to the finish line, and this is the reason the play poker tournaments online, as each was hoping to enjoy another poker trip on bwin with a chance to win a fortune.
The short-stack Nikos7714 held on for as long as he could. He got eliminated when his A9 ran into veteran indrich's A10 suited. This moved indrich to the chip lead at 117k. Of course he knew he didn't need to win all the chips, he just need to avoid elimination and hang on to a top three spot in this online poker tournament.
RipCheader and 010Peter chipped down a bit, with RipCheader being shortest at 43k. 010Peter had 87k and King_Dirk had improved to 56k. The stacks would continue to swing until King_Dirk looked, ironically, at two black Kings.
At this point RipCheader had regained a chip advantage on him. He had AK suited and King_Dirk got all his chips into the middle pre-flop. Like most online poker tournaments, in fact, like any poker tournaments, starting with the best hand doesn't mean you'll finish with it.
King_Dirk, knew if an Ace came, he'd be drawing slim to the case King. It didn't take long for the painful news to be delivered as the flop was Ace high.
Congratulations to 010Peter, indrich, and RipCheader for winning the $7,700 prize package and their trip to the WPT Venice event.
As the field got whittled down to the bubble these five players remained: indrich (~77k), RipCheaer (~70k), 010peter (just short of 100k), King_Dirk (one of two short stacks with about 31k) and Nikos7714 (the shortest stack at almost 28k). With three prize packages to be award with a value of $7,700 the action was tense.
You might recognize a couple of names on here from my posts about the Aussie Millions. By playing in bwin's poker tournaments, they each won a trip around the world. Once there, King_Dirk, went deep and cashed in a side event, and indrich gave a strong showing but didn't make the money. Once again, they were close to the finish line, and this is the reason the play poker tournaments online, as each was hoping to enjoy another poker trip on bwin with a chance to win a fortune.
The short-stack Nikos7714 held on for as long as he could. He got eliminated when his A9 ran into veteran indrich's A10 suited. This moved indrich to the chip lead at 117k. Of course he knew he didn't need to win all the chips, he just need to avoid elimination and hang on to a top three spot in this online poker tournament.
RipCheader and 010Peter chipped down a bit, with RipCheader being shortest at 43k. 010Peter had 87k and King_Dirk had improved to 56k. The stacks would continue to swing until King_Dirk looked, ironically, at two black Kings.
At this point RipCheader had regained a chip advantage on him. He had AK suited and King_Dirk got all his chips into the middle pre-flop. Like most online poker tournaments, in fact, like any poker tournaments, starting with the best hand doesn't mean you'll finish with it.
King_Dirk, knew if an Ace came, he'd be drawing slim to the case King. It didn't take long for the painful news to be delivered as the flop was Ace high.
Congratulations to 010Peter, indrich, and RipCheader for winning the $7,700 prize package and their trip to the WPT Venice event.
Friday, February 27, 2009
Send them to Poker School
Last week, I played in a micro-limit online poker cash game. The stakes were modest, but enough in these difficult times I was cautious. It was an odd table with several competent players but there were also the donators who were anything but competent. Those guys clearly needed to go to poker school.
In one pivitol hand, the player first to act fires out a 6 times the Big Blind bet. This guy had a small stack. Clearly, not someone offering the implied odds of trying to hit a big hand and felt him. In fact, his stack was so small he barely had a third of the chips of the second smallest stack. On top of that, this guy was playing very tight.
Typically an early raise has induced a lot of folding as the table was playing conservatively. This time the second shortest stack on his left calls and everybody follows suit.
Seems everybody wants to get their virtual chips into play. This was atypical I could only imagine each successive call being weaker than the first. I hold the titanic hand of 4h3h. I of course am considering a steal.
I say considering because there are a lot of variables at play here. The tightish player, first to act, demonstrated a real hand with that large opening bet. If I do raise to isolate, I’ll know where I stand pretty quick on the flop cause my outs probably aren’t his. The second to with his shortish stack showed a willingness to play and has to have a hand of some strength. A raise might give me three way action and I have a hand that plays very easily after the flop. A big problem is my raise and two calls might induce the others to get into the pot, or simply shove all their chips into the center.
Yet, I have no idea what to raise. Too little, and surely I’m just creating a much bigger 6 way pot with a 34 in my hand OR encouraging and giving someone the opportunity to pound it. Too much and they could move their stacks in and I just have 34 in my hand.
What if I just call? My hand plays well in a multi-way pot. I’m going to be a dog but I’m not that bad of shape. My hand had implied value, though my position cut down on my implied odds of getting paid if I nailed it. Still, needing to call 5x with 31.5x in the pot is definitely worth sticking around especially with suited connectors.
Flop comes out 6s5h2h. That's what I was hoping for. Somebody gets an ace or king high flush two of their 9 outs give me a straight flush. A player with 78 could get bold and unable to relinquesh their hand. Even if they hit, I'd have flush outs. .
I check, praying somebody will have a piece and want to fire out a bet for me. I don't have to wait as the initial preflop raiser fires. Even better the next to act raises 2.5x the bet.
Folded around to me. Again, I have to decide to raise or call. UTG looks like he’s going to call the other guy's bet. Do I risk raising and losing him or do I just smooth call and then push on the turn and tie the UTG player to the hand.
I decide wrong and raise. I bet more then either has.
UTG folds after some thought. Thought he might have an overpair like queens or jacks. The other player calls immediately. He's also got the straight. Sure enough the screen reveals 3d4d.
Fortunately, I river a heart.
I wonder how mad he was to lose a big pot when he flopped a straight. I think for once there is some justice in poker. He mangled a bad holding from start to finish and lost his stack because of it.
Let's start from the top when he calls preflop he has no idea how strong or weak the rest of the table is. He calls a raise from early position by a tight player and all he has is 3d4d. Not a terrible decision in general, though probably on its own merits maybe not a profitable one long run. In this situation I don't like it. The opening bettor's stack is so small there is no reward for the risk.
If say, the stack could double you up and it's cheap relative to your stack to see the flop it's a good play. However, there is none of that extra reward at play here. Even worse he only had position on three players (two of whom were in the blind and might not even go to the flop). Then he still had the risk the rest of the table could raise him. Potentially, he could easily flop best and still have to give up on the hand.
When my flush hit, I knew my opponent got what he deserved. Maybe he should take some classes in poker school in the future.
In one pivitol hand, the player first to act fires out a 6 times the Big Blind bet. This guy had a small stack. Clearly, not someone offering the implied odds of trying to hit a big hand and felt him. In fact, his stack was so small he barely had a third of the chips of the second smallest stack. On top of that, this guy was playing very tight.
Typically an early raise has induced a lot of folding as the table was playing conservatively. This time the second shortest stack on his left calls and everybody follows suit.
Seems everybody wants to get their virtual chips into play. This was atypical I could only imagine each successive call being weaker than the first. I hold the titanic hand of 4h3h. I of course am considering a steal.
I say considering because there are a lot of variables at play here. The tightish player, first to act, demonstrated a real hand with that large opening bet. If I do raise to isolate, I’ll know where I stand pretty quick on the flop cause my outs probably aren’t his. The second to with his shortish stack showed a willingness to play and has to have a hand of some strength. A raise might give me three way action and I have a hand that plays very easily after the flop. A big problem is my raise and two calls might induce the others to get into the pot, or simply shove all their chips into the center.
Yet, I have no idea what to raise. Too little, and surely I’m just creating a much bigger 6 way pot with a 34 in my hand OR encouraging and giving someone the opportunity to pound it. Too much and they could move their stacks in and I just have 34 in my hand.
What if I just call? My hand plays well in a multi-way pot. I’m going to be a dog but I’m not that bad of shape. My hand had implied value, though my position cut down on my implied odds of getting paid if I nailed it. Still, needing to call 5x with 31.5x in the pot is definitely worth sticking around especially with suited connectors.
Flop comes out 6s5h2h. That's what I was hoping for. Somebody gets an ace or king high flush two of their 9 outs give me a straight flush. A player with 78 could get bold and unable to relinquesh their hand. Even if they hit, I'd have flush outs. .
I check, praying somebody will have a piece and want to fire out a bet for me. I don't have to wait as the initial preflop raiser fires. Even better the next to act raises 2.5x the bet.
Folded around to me. Again, I have to decide to raise or call. UTG looks like he’s going to call the other guy's bet. Do I risk raising and losing him or do I just smooth call and then push on the turn and tie the UTG player to the hand.
I decide wrong and raise. I bet more then either has.
UTG folds after some thought. Thought he might have an overpair like queens or jacks. The other player calls immediately. He's also got the straight. Sure enough the screen reveals 3d4d.
Fortunately, I river a heart.
I wonder how mad he was to lose a big pot when he flopped a straight. I think for once there is some justice in poker. He mangled a bad holding from start to finish and lost his stack because of it.
Let's start from the top when he calls preflop he has no idea how strong or weak the rest of the table is. He calls a raise from early position by a tight player and all he has is 3d4d. Not a terrible decision in general, though probably on its own merits maybe not a profitable one long run. In this situation I don't like it. The opening bettor's stack is so small there is no reward for the risk.
If say, the stack could double you up and it's cheap relative to your stack to see the flop it's a good play. However, there is none of that extra reward at play here. Even worse he only had position on three players (two of whom were in the blind and might not even go to the flop). Then he still had the risk the rest of the table could raise him. Potentially, he could easily flop best and still have to give up on the hand.
When my flush hit, I knew my opponent got what he deserved. Maybe he should take some classes in poker school in the future.
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